Posts moved. Now we can rope Olorin into the discussion.
Very cool essay, but I am not convinced.
The question of Tom's nature is one the greatest enduring mysteries of that book, and one that I've always felt we're probably better off not knowing the answer to, and the author of the article says as much. Some have said he represents Tolkien himself, but were he alive today, I think he would firmly deny it. I don't think it is Aule either. Yes, the arguments made are good, but they can just as easily be counter-argued. Mere supposition (although well-thought out) at best. Tolkien even goes to say that even in the First Age, with the exception of Ulmo from time to time, Orome was the only Vala that still bothered to return to Middle-earth (not counting Melkor.) With everything we are told about Aule in Tolkien's works, I never even thought once that Tom somehow fir the bill, or vice versa. Especially late into the Third Age, with Valinor long removed from the circles of the world, I find it hard to reconcile the though of the Smith, a being of forges, crafting, and shaping, mucking about in a forest, singing and dancing. I also can't fathom why one of the Valar would just sit around in Middle-earth and watch unconcernedly as two of his most powerful and former servants ran roughshod all over the place, enslaving and killing at will.
I am content believing that:
A) He is indeed a Maia gone native. The writer of the essay's argument in dispelling this is very weak. The Maiar were numerous and only very few among them are named and their areas of concern and power mentioned. Tom could have easily been one of the very first to enter Ea and scampered off to a twilit Middle-earth and away from those bossy Valar to do his own thing.
B) He is a spirit from the Void, like Ungoliant, neither Valar nor Maiar, but some form of neutral being that perhaps lay outside of Illuvatar's Music, but snuck in there to do his own thing.
C) He just... is. He is the embodiment of incorruptible and unswayable neutrality, a harmonious mid-point to the good of the Valar and the evil of Morgoth.